The season autumn has been used in the name of the scenario as it visually captures the essence of the scenario: in autumn the trees continue to grow taller, while the leaves die and are shed. In this scenario, sectors of the economy continue to grow and thrive, while other parts shrivel. The Autumn of Limited Opportunity looks at what our society and economy could look like in 2025 if all the role players (government, business, labour, communities and individuals) take, or fail to take, certain actions. [read more]

The season winter has been used in the name of the scenario as it visually captures the essence of the scenario: in winter the world seems bleak and hopeless, nothing grows, and life retreats. So too, in this scenario. The economy is stagnant, and social circumstances are depressed. The Winter of Discontent looks at what our society and economy could look like in 2025 if all the role players (government, business, labour, communities and individuals) take, or fail to take, certain actions. [read more]

The season spring has been used in the name of the scenario as it visually captures the essence of the scenario: in spring, the world is full of hope and optimism as the world comes back to life after the cold and hardship of winter. Spring is alive with possibility, new beginnings and the possibility of a brighter future. So too in this scenario. Greater cooperation and coordination improves economic and social conditions for increasing numbers of people. The Spring of Hope looks at what our society and economy could look like in 2025 if all the role players (government, business, labour, communities and individuals) take, or fail to take, certain actions. [read more]

The season summer has been used in the name of the scenario as it visually captures the essence of the scenario: summer is a symbol of life. During summer the trees are green, flowers bloom, and the birds sing. The scenario depicts a society which is blooming. Through collaboration the economy and society are thriving in a way that everyone is able to reap the fruits. South Africa is now indeed a better place for all. The Summer for All People looks at what our society and economy could look like in 2025 if all the role players (government, business, labour, communities and individuals) take, or fail to take, certain actions.[read more]

• New HIV Infections and averted infections 2005 - 2025

• AIDS deaths and averted AIDS deaths 2005 - 2025

• Cumulative public health sector costs in managing HIV and AIDS 2005 - 2025

• Adult HIV prevalence  in 2025  (Age 20-64)

• Total maternal and double orphans

5,9 million new HIV infections are averted in the Summer for All People scenario by 2025.

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In the Summer for All People scenario we are likely to avert 2,5 million AIDS deaths by 2025.

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The Key Question that informed the Scenarios

How will HIV and AIDS and our responses shape the future of South Africa by 2025? The answer lies in understanding what the key driving forces are, how they interact and how they are likely to play out in the future.

Key Driving Forces
There are two kinds of key driving forces, namely:

1. Inescapables: These are elements that are a given. They will form part of any future scenario, e.g. the epidemic is with us for the next 20 years. Based on our research we will still be dealing with the burden of the epidemic on our country in 20 years’ time.

2. Uncertainties: These are elements that are likely to influence the scenarios, but how they play out is uncertain. Depending on future developments they could go either way, e.g. today we may believe that we will not find a cure for HIV and AIDS in the next 20 years, but in five years from now there may well be a cure that will change our beliefs and the course of the epidemic.

Based on the synthesis of existing scenario studies, and further discussions, the following key driving forces were identified:

Inescapables

1. The epidemic is with us for the next 20 years.

2. Some poverty, inequality and unemployment remain.

3. Government resources have limits.

4. Increased demand on and depletion of natural resources.

5. People on the move.

6. Climate change.

7. Activist energy.

8. Orphans.

9. Other diseases.

Uncertainties

1. Will there be a ‘magic bullet’?

2. Who has the power? What kind? How will it be used?

3. How do we respond to inequality and with what effect?

4.  What do we believe about HIV and AIDS? What works? Traditional versus modern medicine? Prevention? Treatment? Care?

5. What will the South African and global economy be?

6. What is happening on the African continent?

7. What human and natural resources will we have?

8. Can we all work together?

9. Will the goodwill continue?

* Cumulative programme costs are the costs that the public health sector are likely to incur in managing the effects of HIV and AIDS. These costs exclude various social grants.

* Cumulative programme costs are the costs that the public health sector are likely to incur in managing the effects of HIV and AIDS. These costs exclude various social grants.

To answer this question, we in turn asked the following questions for each of the scenarios:
1. Will there be a magic bullet?
2. What do we believe about HIV and AIDS?
3. What kind of leadership is there?
4. How does government, business, civil society and the donor community respond?
4.1. Government response
4.2. Business sector response
4.3. Civil society response
4.4. Donor community response
5. What condition is the South African economy in?
6. How is business affected by HIV and AIDS?
7. What is the medical response?
8. What are the socio-economic issues?
9. What are the underlying psychosocial issues fuelling the HIV epidemic?
10. What about the children?
11. What has happened to the legal system?
12. What natural resources will be available?
13. What is happening on the African continent?
14. What is happening in terms of media / communications?
15. What are some critical time frames and events?

Download the responses