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Scenario Goals
The Live the Future project aims to mobilise leadership from all sectors, and anyone else who can make a difference, with a view to drawing together and intensifying efforts to mitigate the effects of HIV and AIDS in South Africa. Our donor, Metropolitan Group, has for a long time played an active role in the HIV and AIDS arena, having developed the Doyle model - the first actuarial tool to project the demographic effect of HIV and AIDS in southern Africa. We view the Live the Future scenarios as an equally pivotal tool to:
- create a shared understanding of the key factors driving the HIV and AIDS epidemic so as to minimise the spread and the effect of the epidemic;
- create a vision of a successful future that will inspire people from different sectors to commit to specific actions at an individual, organisational, community as well as at national level;
- identify key actions required to align, intensify and broaden efforts countrywide so as to maximise synergies and more effectively use limited resources;
- influence policies and agendas at different levels.
The key question we asked when developing the scenarios was: 'How will HIV and AIDS and our responses shape the future of South Africa by 2025?' We took nine existing sets of scenarios about South Africa's future or about AIDS in Africa, and then we invited several large groups of people who represent the AIDS community (from grassroots level through to NGOs, labour, business and government) and other disciplines to question, change, comment and add their voices to these stories. In this way we built in a strong and authentic AIDS component, which was then complemented by additional research from independent think tanks and experts on specific areas of interest. These different stories (scenarios) about the future were then combined with quantitative methodologies; for example the different sets of assumptions were modelled by demographers and actuaries, to create an encompassing image containing words, pictures as well as numbers about where we might be going. This resulted in the set of future stories and other supporting material contained in this document.
The key strength of future scenarios is that they reveal to us what might happen, rather than what we want the future to be - they help us to move beyond our own mental maps, to think the unthinkable, and to plan accordingly. In short, scenario-building implies choice - and therefore hope.
The project resulted in four distinctly separate scenarios which reflect on the interrelationship between a wide range of aspects including socio-economic, psychosocial, legal, environmental and political issues. These scenarios describe how South Africa could look in 2025.
The Live the Future scenarios suggest that unless we aim to prevent new infections, collaborate and adopt a holistic and integrated approach, we will make little progress in stemming the tide, i.e. 'we will continue mopping up the water while the tap is still running' (as our current efforts are commonly referred to).
So which path into the future do we choose? When Alice in Lewis Carroll's Alice in Wonderland asks the Cheshire cat which path to take he responds, 'if you don't know where you're going, it doesn't matter which path you take.'
We strongly believe that South Africa has the resources, drive and quality of leadership across all sectors to turn the tide on the HIV epidemic. We hope that the scenarios depicted will change mindsets - that South Africans will gain hope and dare to dream of a generation free of HIV and AIDS.
Join us in 'living this dream' by taking the necessary steps to shape South Africa's future in areas where you have influence, i.e. in your personal life, in your community and in your work or professional capacity. Together we can create a South Africa beyond expectation. |
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